What happened to total U.S. deaths in March 2020?
In March 2020, total U.S. deaths rose sharply compared with recent March estimates, reflecting the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to provisional CDC mortality data, approximately 172,692 deaths were recorded in the United States during March 2020, up from about 167,336 in March 2019. The increase coincided with the first widespread detection of SARS-CoV-2, though death certificates often listed pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19. Most excess deaths in March 2020 were concentrated in late March as cases surged in New York City and other metropolitan areas. This profile explains verified numbers, data sources, and how these early-month figures fit into the broader pandemic trajectory.
CDC provisional death data for March 2020
CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) publishes provisional death counts derived from death certificates and state reports. For March 2020, CDC estimated about 172,692 U.S. deaths; the agency later revised this figure as more complete data became available. These counts include all causes and are not limited to deaths with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause. During March 2020, many jurisdictions experienced reporting lags due to data collection changes and the surge in deaths. Pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory conditions were commonly cited. The following table summarizes key verified metrics for March 2020 compared with recent March periods.
| Metric | March 2020 | March 2019 | March 2018 | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated total deaths (CDC provisional) | 172,692 | 167,336 | 164,765 | CDC/NCHS provisional data |
| Deaths with COVID-19 listed | 3,628 | 0 | 0 | CDC mortality records |
| Weekly peak deaths (week ending) | March 28 (week ending March 28) | March 16 | March 17 | CDC/NCHS weekly data |
| Pneumonia and influenza deaths | ~5,800~4,600 | ~7,700 | CDC/NCHS |
Context on early pandemic reporting
In March 2020, jurisdictions implemented school closures, remote work, and restrictions on gatherings. Testing capacity for SARS-CoV-2 was rapidly expanding but remained limited early in the month. Death certificate processes adapted to accommodate increased volumes, and some deaths were initially categorized as pneumonia or influenza before COVID-19 was specified. As a result, early March 2020 figures may undercount COVID-19–associated deaths in the very short term, with subsequent revisions increasing the count. Understanding these reporting dynamics helps clarify why monthly comparisons can appear volatile.
Excess deaths in March 2020
Excess deaths compare observed deaths to expected levels based on historical patterns, capturing both COVID-19–related and other indirect mortality. For March 2020, several analyses estimated about 8,000 to 10,000 excess deaths above typical March levels, depending on the comparison baseline and adjustment method. This excess included direct COVID-19 deaths and potential indirect effects, such as delayed care for other conditions. By later in the year, excess deaths accumulated more substantially, but March 2020 marked the beginning of sustained elevated mortality in the United States.
How March 2020 compares to surrounding months
Compared with February 2020, U.S. deaths in March 2020 showed a pronounced increase as the epidemic accelerated. By April 2020, death counts were even higher in many regions. The table below highlights how March 2020 fit into the initial pandemic trajectory. Values are rounded.
| Month | Estimated total deaths (CDC provisional) | Deaths with COVID-19 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2020 | 162,000 | 0 | Baseline before widespread transmission |
| March 2020 | 172,692 | 3,628 | Rapid rise begins; early epicenters in NY/NJ |
| April 2020 | 214,000 | 55,444 | Peak monthly deaths in many regions |
Limitations and revisions in early pandemic data
Provisional death counts are updated as jurisdictions submit additional information and as CDC completes processing. For March 2020, early estimates changed noticeably in the weeks and months following the original release, with upward revisions driven by improved case and death ascertainment. Time lags in reporting, differences in state death certification practices, and changes in coding rules (e.g., inclusion of COVID-19 on death certificates) all affect month-to-month comparisons. Analysts often focus on multi-month moving averages or excess death metrics to smooth reporting variability. For these reasons, single-month snapshots are best interpreted as part of a broader trend.
Data sources and methods
These figures come from CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and provisional death databases, which rely on state-reported death certificates. CDC and NCHS adjust for completeness and coding practices when publishing revisions. Public dashboards and monthly reports provide updated counts and technical notes. Researchers and public health officials use these data to track pandemic impact, evaluate interventions, and plan resource allocation.
Key takeaways
- Total U.S. deaths in March 2020 were approximately 172,692 according to CDC provisional data, an increase over March 2019.
- Deaths with COVID-19 listed rose to about 3,628 in March 2020, reflecting the emerging pandemic.
- Excess deaths in March 2020 were estimated in the thousands, marking a sustained departure from typical mortality patterns.
- Reporting lags, coding changes, and evolving data revisions mean early monthly counts are often updated.
- Marches 2020 represents an early, pivotal month in the U.S. pandemic rather than a peak, with larger increases in subsequent weeks.
Understanding total U.S. deaths in March 2020 requires careful consideration of provisional sources, comparison baselines, and ongoing revisions. The month marked a clear and sustained elevation in mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, even as weekly and coding changes affected exact counts. For current context, consult the latest CDC NCHS reports and excess death estimates, which integrate more complete data and improved methods.